If Fab doesn’t leave now; barca won’t be able to buy him next summer

Fab better get right and get right soon. If he wants to leave for barca he needs to force it through now. Because the way the Catalan club is falling apart these days, they won’t be able to afford him next year. Between mismanagement of talent and resources, barca is facing a bleak period in its coming future. Acquiring Fab should have been the Spanish club’s number 1 priority these last two years; not Ibra and not Villa. Now their attempts smack of desperation and hint at the potential decline of the empire. For Fab though, it means if he doesn’t force a transfer through now, he might be in North London for a long-while yet.

Don’t worry, this isn’t some kind of anti-barca diatribe. I don’t need to. No, this whimsical discussion is about barca’s deteriorating ability to grab hold of Fab.

For the last year now, outside observers such as moi, have watched barca engage in bad player management and financial ruin under the Laporta rise to prominence.

The Ibra-Eto’o swap was a disaster that pretty much everyone saw coming. It wasn’t the loss of Eto’o. Rather, it was the way barca was fleeced in the transfer: barca sent Eto’o plus 45m -odd euros to Inter for Ibra. Unfortunately, Ibra was NOT worth that much and it contributed to a sinkhole in barca’s debt, something on the order of 500m + euros.

Not content to stop with just one bad decision, barca has doubled up this summer with the purchase of David Villa. True, some replacement for Henry was need; and yes, Villa has been a star this summer at the World Cup. But barca already have Messi, Pedro, Keita, Bojan, Iniesta, Xavi and, oh yeah, Ibra! To make it worse, they were forced to sell Yaya, which means now, they need to invest in their defense as well.

All well and good except barca’s lucrative broadcasting contract looks to dry up since the broadcasting company filed for bankruptcy. Too bad barca doesn’t have the written guarantee like madrid to get some of their revenue. As Rosell said, they need to impose austerity. ADd it all up and you get too many demands, not enough money.

Who wants to bet Guardiola has an out clause in his contract?

To top it all, barca face the crucial challenge they have sought to ignore on the pitch: the aging of Xavi. Xavi is the key to barca. They always perform substantially worse when he’s injured or out. Xavi is 30 now and playing in a world cup -he’s going to be tired. And, who’s Xavi’s natural replacement? Fab.

You know that; I know that; barca knows that; and, Arsene knows it too. This means Fab’s price is only going to increase over the next year -as barca’s demand increases. But also when barca’s financial situation will be deteriorating.

Again, back to Rosell -he’s a funny one, on point about finances but sketchy about FIFA tapping up rules! – he warned in May that barca’s debt is becoming unmanageable. And just the other day Bloomberg reported that barca is falling behind on wage payments and needed to refinance about 150 euro  in debt. Oh yeah, and they still owe Arsenal payments for Henry and Hleb. Who knows what they owe other teams.

This does not bode well for barca; or more importantly, for Fab.

The issue is simple: if Fab leaves now, even with the downward spiral at barca, he gives them enough of a long-term stability to rebuild around. But if Fab stays in London for another season, barca won’t be able to afford him next summer. And Arsenal, with our manageable debt and profit making enterprise will be able to ignore low offers.

For those that worry, this is why Arsenal are not a selling club. We sell when we want or when a player wants to leave, but not because we have to.

This summer has exposed barca as becoming increasingly less able to invest. A situation that will be extremely problematic next summer, just when their need for reinvestment is at its height, what with real madrid launching a new attack next season on La Liga.

Think about it like this. Right now, barca has some money, and they can spend that money on Fab now and rebuild over the next couple of years, to fill in bit roles. But that money is dwindling by the month; so next summer, barca will have even less money and need to invest in even more positions: fab, a defender and who knows what else. But Fab’s price will only have gone up.

This is why barca keeps tapping up the player. This is why they have no shame. This is why they desperately need Fab to state publicly he wants to leave to drive down the price.

Because barca is trying to survive and Fab is their secret savior; barca just might be a deadman walking for the foreseeable future if Fab doesn’t go now.

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