Hooray the transfer season begins tomorrow! Final Predictions!

Well boys and girls, June 1 is almost here. Given all the speculation out there, one might wonder, so what? But June 1 is the true opening of the transfer window. June 1 is the day the transfer window opens in France Italy, Germany and Spain (what I like to call the “FIGS”). I obsesses over these types of regulations. My friends point out that my posts tend to be analysis driven, even to a fault, as opposed to more fun and entertaining. Sorry about that. But I can’t help it; I love the chess game beneath the media swirl of transfer rumors and June 1 is prime time! So here my predictions for the coming signings by Arsenal.

We know Arsene doesn’t want to add more than three players, and he’s already added one (Chamakh). This means he’s looking at two more (a GK and CB) plus maybe one to replace Fab should he leave. But I think he’ll pick up three people, a GK, CB and DM, plus a replacement for Fab.

My predictions:

1. Fab is gone for £45m. If he stays we only need to drop money on the DM role, but if he leaves, he has to be replaced and that costs real dinero. See below.

2.  Gourcuff is coming to Arsenal. His wages actually fit within our structure (£80k a year, which Bordeaux cannot afford now since no Champions League). Also this will happen before Fab leaves so as to leverage it against barca.

3. Pape Diakhate is coming in. A man without a team and less than £10m? Sounds cheap and perfect for Arsene.

4. Eduardo is gone. Maybe as part of the Gourcuff deal.

5. New Goalkeeper. No idea which one, but we’ll get a new one. I think it’ll be one of the German keepers though, not Lloris.

6. Silvestre and Gallas are gone. I know, I know, it’s easy. But still.

7. Nordveit gets promoted to the First Team to round out the CBs. So Vermaelen, Djoujrou, Pape and Nordveit are our back four next year.

8. A DM purchase, in the mold of, but not Melo (unless Fab should per chance stay, then Melo and no Gourcuff). Anyway, more likely an unknown since Song has performed so well last season. But also possible see number “2” below. The key is the price; Arsene won’t spend more than £8m on this role. So think Matuidi for £6m. We’ve lost Merida so a space on the team has opened up and no one in the Reserves can fill this role with experience yet.

Potential surprise announcements

1. Another striker. Although it might not be a big purchase. Arsene is clearly displeased at the performance of the frontline. If this happens, Vela is gone, at least on a loan.

2. A pick up from the Real Madrid exodus that is about to ensue. Possible purchase: Mahamadou Diarra for DM rotation. He’s older, but that’s good because we need experience; also, he’s cheaper and perfect for rotation with Song.

Total Expenditure: around £25m (GK (10), CB(8), DM(7)) not including the Gourcuff purchase (say, £22m). Remember, Gourcuff is only needed if Fab leaves, which I think he will. So the Fab money basically funds the Gourcuff purchase.  This means (£45m in + 40m kitty – £47m = £38m positive). Should Fab stay, then this changes because of Melo for £15m. But that’s another post…

Anyway, I think Arsene will spend a lot, but still (1) keeps his wage structure intact; (2) keep money in the bank; and, (3) actually makes the team more competitive.

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